10 Jobs Most Likely to Disappear During the Next Recession

Worried about the next recession? You should be, but maybe not for the reason you think.

Let’s be real for a second. Economic downturns are always scary. We’ve all been there, watching the news, tightening our belts, and hoping for the best. But this next one? It’s different. It has a new partner in crime, and its name is artificial intelligence.

For decades, recessions have been a time for companies to cut costs, often resulting in temporary layoffs. But now, they have a powerful new option: automation. Instead of just laying people off, they can replace them. Permanently.

Don’t just take my word for it. Research from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is pretty chilling. It shows that since the mid-1980s, nearly 90% of job losses due to automation in the U.S. have occurred in the first year of a recession.

Gita Gopinath, a top official at the IMF, put it bluntly: “In a downturn, these firms simply let go of workers to cut costs. Therefore, the extent to which automation could replace humans only becomes fully visible during or immediately after a downturn.”

So, what does that mean for you? It means the next recession won’t just be a temporary setback for some jobs; for many, it could be an extinction-level event driven by technology. Here are 10 jobs sitting right in the danger zone.

Cashiers and retail sales associates

This one feels obvious, but the reality is even tougher than you think. Retail jobs are always the first to feel the pain when people stop spending. When wallets get tight, discretionary purchases like new clothes, gadgets, and home goods are the first things to go.

But a drop in sales is only half the story. The other half is the quiet hum of the self-checkout machine.

For years, retailers have been pushing automation to cut labor costs. A recession will be the perfect excuse to floor the accelerator. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) already projects a staggering 10% decline in cashier jobs by 2034, which means over 313,000 positions could vanish.

The role of a retail worker is split into two. Low-skill, transactional jobs, such as ringing up sales, are disappearing rapidly. The jobs that remain will be for higher-skill “consultants” or “stylists” who can provide a level of personal service that a website can’t. The problem is, there will be far fewer of these new jobs than the old ones they’re replacing, leaving a huge gap in the workforce.

Data entry clerks

If there’s a poster child for a job that AI was born to do, this is it. Data entry is the definition of a routine, repetitive cognitive task—and modern AI eats those tasks for breakfast. It’s faster, more accurate, and way cheaper than a human.

The numbers are brutal. Data USA, using BLS figures, projects a jaw-dropping 25.1% decline for Data Entry Keyers over the next decade. The World Economic Forum (WEF) also flags it as one of the fastest-declining roles globally.

But this isn’t just about one job disappearing. It’s about the end of the “first office job.” For generations, data entry was a key entry point into the white-collar world for people without a college degree. It was a way to get your foot in the door, learn basic office software, and start climbing the career ladder. With that rung now being sawed off by AI, it will be much harder for people to break into the corporate world, potentially making office work a more exclusive club.

Administrative and executive assistants

The classic assistant who juggles schedules, books flights, and types memos is on the way out. AI is “unbundling” the administrative role, with software now handling tasks that once required a dedicated person.

The outlook is bleak. The BLS projects zero growth for secretaries and administrative assistants, with a net loss of 12,400 jobs by 2034. The WEF agrees, predicting a massive decline in these roles. Why? Because AI has already “radically changed” the job. Smart calendars can schedule meetings, AI can book travel, and voice-to-text can draft emails flawlessly.

This doesn’t mean every assistant will be replaced by a robot. But it does mean the job is fundamentally changing. The only path forward is to evolve from a task-doer into a strategic partner.

The assistants who survive won’t be the ones who are best at scheduling; they’ll be the ones who are best at managing relationships, anticipating their executive’s needs, and navigating complex office politics—skills that AI can’t touch. It’s a total reinvention of the role, and those who can’t make the leap will be left behind.

Food preparation and counter workers

The fast-food industry is a machine built for efficiency, and in a recession, human workers are often the least efficient part. High labor costs and constant turnover will push restaurants to embrace automation like never before.

We’re already seeing it. The BLS projects a 3% decline in jobs for Food Preparation Workers, partly because restaurants are purchasing more pre-cut and pre-washed ingredients to save on labor.

At the front of the house, self-ordering kiosks are becoming standard, reducing the need for counter staff. In the back, kitchen automation is getting wild. We’re talking robots that can assemble burgers, toss salads, and even make pizzas. With labor accounting for up to 35% of a restaurant’s revenue, the temptation to automate is huge, especially when, as one expert put it, “robots don’t take vacations and they don’t get sick.”

Telemarketers and customer service representatives

If you’ve ever chatted with a surprisingly helpful bot online, you’ve seen the future. AI-powered chatbots and voice agents are becoming increasingly adept at handling routine customer questions. They can work 24/7, handle thousands of queries at once, and do it all for a fraction of the cost of a human call center.

This is why experts at Goldman Sachs identify customer service reps and telemarketers as being at the highest risk of AI displacement. It’s already happening. British Telecom plans to replace 10,000 human workers with AI, specifically targeting call-handling jobs. According to the tech consulting firm Gartner, by 2029, AI is expected to be able to autonomously resolve 80% of common customer service issues.

This doesn’t mean all customer service jobs will vanish. But it does mean the death of the entry-level “Tier 1” support role. The simple, repetitive problems—such as password resets, order tracking, and basic questions—will all be handled by AI. The only human jobs that will remain will be for highly skilled experts who can tackle complex, emotionally charged, or high-stakes problems. This breaks the traditional career path, making it much harder to get started in the field.

Also read: 10 money mistakes people make during a recession

Manufacturing and assembly line workers

The story of robots replacing factory workers is an old one, but a recession is about to write a very dramatic new chapter. When consumer demand for big-ticket items like cars and electronics wanes, factories will use the downtime to retool with next-generation robotics and AI.

History shows us the pattern. Manufacturing employment has dropped during every single one of the last five U.S. recessions. During the 2008 crisis, automotive giants like GM and Chrysler nearly collapsed, taking hundreds of thousands of jobs with them. The BLS expects the slow decline to continue, projecting an overall decrease in production jobs over the next decade.

The pain won’t just be felt at the big Ford or GM plants. It will ripple through the entire supply chain. The BLS projects that “Motor vehicle parts manufacturing” will be the single fastest-declining industry in the country in terms of economic output. That means the thousands of smaller, family-owned businesses that make the nuts, bolts, and wires for the big guys will be hit even harder, amplifying the economic damage across the industrial heartland.

Construction laborers

Few industries are as brutally cyclical as construction. When the economy is booming, construction sites are everywhere. When a recession hits, the work dries up overnight.

It’s a simple formula: recessions mean tighter credit and less confidence. Banks stop lending for large projects, and companies and families postpone building new homes and offices. The result is swift and painful. During the Great Recession, a staggering 2 million construction workers lost their jobs as the housing market imploded.

Here’s the weird part, though. The BLS actually projects strong long-term growth for construction laborers, about 7% through 2034. This is due to the massive need for new infrastructure, green energy projects, and data centers to support our digital world.

This creates a painful “boom-bust” whiplash for workers. A recession will trigger a massive, immediate bust, throwing thousands out of work. But the underlying demand means that as soon as the economy recovers, companies will be desperately trying to hire again. It’s a career of extreme highs and lows, and a recession is the trigger for a very deep low.

Hotel desk clerks and hospitality staff

Like construction, hospitality runs on money that people are willing to spend freely. When budgets get cut, vacations and business trips are the first things to go. This hits hotels like a tidal wave.

We saw a preview of this during the COVID-19 downturn, when travel demand collapsed by over 60%. A traditional recession would trigger a similar, though perhaps less dramatic, fall. The BLS is already forecasting slow growth for hotel jobs, partly because of fierce competition from short-term rentals like Airbnb.

But the bigger threat is technology. The job of a hotel desk clerk is being picked apart by apps. Mobile check-in, digital room keys, and AI-powered concierges are all reducing the need for a human at the front desk. A recession will provide hotels with the perfect opportunity to fully adopt a “tech-first, human-second” model. All routine tasks will be handled by your phone, and the few remaining human employees will be available to address complex problems or provide a premium, luxury experience.

Real estate agents and mortgage brokers

The housing market is built on two things: cheap credit and confidence. In a recession, both of those things evaporate. When interest rates are high and people are concerned about losing their jobs, the market for buying and selling homes stalls.

This is devastating for real estate agents and brokers, whose income is almost entirely based on commissions. The 2008 financial crisis, which originated in the housing market, served as a stark illustration of the severe consequences that can result.

A recession often triggers what’s known as the “Great Agent Shakeout.” The real estate industry has a low barrier to entry, resulting in a large number of part-time or less-committed agents. When the market becomes tough and commissions dry up, these agents struggle to make ends meet and are often forced out of the business.

This leaves a smaller, more dedicated group of full-time professionals to handle the remaining transactions. The job itself doesn’t disappear, but the workforce gets brutally culled.

Proofreaders, copy editors, and entry-level media roles

For years, we were told AI was coming for the boring, repetitive jobs. It turns out that for many companies, tasks such as writing basic marketing copy, proofreading documents, and creating simple graphics are now considered mundane and repetitive jobs.

Generative AI tools can now produce “good enough” content in seconds, for free. When a recession forces companies to slash their marketing and advertising budgets—which are always the first to be cut—these entry-level creative roles become an easy target.

The data is already pointing in this direction. The BLS projects a decline for editors and reporters, and Goldman Sachs specifically flags proofreaders and copy editors as being at high risk of AI displacement. This creates a huge problem for the creative industries. If AI is handling all the junior-level work, how does anyone gain the experience necessary to become a senior-level creative director or strategist? The career ladder is being pulled up, making it incredibly difficult for the next generation to get started.

Key Takeaway

So, what’s the bottom line? The next recession is poised to be a game-changer for the American workforce. It’s not just another dip in the economic cycle; it’s a catalyst for a permanent technological shift.

• The Perfect Storm: The combination of economic pressure to cut costs and the availability of powerful AI tools will accelerate the automation of millions of jobs.
• Two Types of Risk: The jobs most at risk fall into two main categories. First are the cyclical jobs in sectors like construction and hospitality that always get hit hard when spending stops. Second are the routine-based jobs, both manual (manufacturing) and cognitive (data entry, customer service), that are now prime targets for AI replacement.
• The Human Advantage: The jobs that will be the most resilient are those that rely on skills AI can’t replicate, such as deep analytical thinking, creative problem-solving, emotional intelligence, and genuine human connection. In an age of automation, our humanity is becoming our most valuable professional asset.

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