Americans are still planning to retire, but retirement math feels more fragile in 2026

A comfortable retirement used to sound like a simple promise: work hard, save what you can, count on Social Security, and hope Medicare keeps health care from becoming overwhelming. In 2026, that promise feels less steady.

The newest EBRI/Greenwald Retirement Confidence Survey found that only 64% of Americans feel confident they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement, down from last year. That number is still a majority, but it tells a more anxious story when paired with rising costs, debt, and fresh worries about Social Security and Medicare.

The tension is not that Americans have stopped believing in retirement. More people are questioning whether the old retirement formula still works. Workers are trying to save while paying higher prices. Retirees are trying to stretch fixed income while health care and housing keep demanding more. And both groups are watching Washington’s long-term funding problems move from background noise to kitchen-table concern.

What Happened

The 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey, conducted online from January 2 through January 28 among 2,544 Americans ages 25 and older, found confidence falling among both workers and retirees. Worker confidence dropped 6 percentage points from 2025 to 61%, while retiree confidence fell 5 percentage points to 73%, according to EBRI.

That split matters. Retirees are still more confident than workers, but even their outlook has softened. Workers are not just worrying about the distant future; many are dealing with today’s bills first. EBRI found that 65% of workers say debt is a problem for their household, half have credit card debt, and nearly 4 in 10 have more than $25,000 in non-mortgage debt. Retirement planning is hard enough when the future is uncertain. It becomes even harder when the present already feels stretched.

Why People Are Talking About It

The survey is getting attention because the anxieties are no longer abstract. Americans are not only asking whether they saved enough. They are asking whether the systems they planned around will still provide the same value. EBRI found that 78% of workers and 69% of retirees are concerned that the government will make significant changes to the U.S. retirement system. Only about half of workers are confident that Social Security will continue to provide similar benefits in the future, while retiree confidence in Medicare also declined.

There is a reason those concerns feel louder in 2026. The latest Social Security and Medicare Trustees summary projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, while Medicare’s Hospital Insurance trust fund is projected to be depleted in the second quarter of 2033. That does not mean the programs disappear.

The same trustees’ summary says payroll tax income would still fund part of the scheduled benefits. But for households depending on every dollar, “part of” is not a calming phrase.

The Bigger Picture

This is where the retirement story becomes a cost-of-living story. Social Security beneficiaries received a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment for 2026, and the average retired worker benefit was estimated to rise from $2,015 to $2,071 a month, according to the Social Security Administration. But Medicare costs moved, too. The standard monthly Medicare Part B premium rose from $185 in 2025 to $202.90 in 2026, according to CMS.

That is the squeeze many retirees recognize immediately.

A benefit increase can look helpful on paper, but then feel smaller once premiums, rent, groceries, utilities, and medical costs are paid. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% over the 12 months ending in May 2026. Food was up 3.1%, shelter was up 3.4%, and medical care services rose 3.6%. For retirees, those are not luxury categories. They are the monthly essentials.

Supporting Evidence

The Federal Reserve’s 2025 household well-being report, published in May 2026, helps explain why workers may feel financially stable today but still uneasy about retirement tomorrow. The Federal Reserve found that 73% of adults said they were doing okay financially or living comfortably, yet only 35% of non-retirees said their retirement savings plan was on track.

That gap is important. A person can pay the bills this month and still feel behind on retirement savings. A household can look fine from the outside while quietly reducing 401(k) contributions, carrying credit card balances, or delaying health care. The Fed also found that 63% of adults could cover a $400 emergency expense with cash or its equivalent, while 55% had rainy-day savings covering three months of expenses. Those figures show resilience, but they also show how many households have little room for a major setback.

Different Perspectives

One perspective is that the retirement system is still working for many Americans. Most retirees in the EBRI survey continue to report a decent standard of living, and Social Security remains a major source of income. EBRI found that 92% of retirees receive Social Security income, making it the foundation of retirement finances for many households. From this view, the concern is real, but not every retiree is in crisis.

The other perspective is that confidence can fall even before a crisis arrives. Workers see projected trust fund depletion dates, higher Medicare premiums, stubborn prices, and growing debt. They also see older relatives retiring earlier than planned because of health problems or job changes. EBRI found that retirees reported a median retirement age of 62, while workers expected to retire at 65. That three-year gap is more than a scheduling issue. It is a reminder that retirement often begins before people feel fully ready.

What Readers Can Take Away

The most useful lesson from the 2026 survey is not that Americans should panic. It is that retirement confidence now depends on more than a savings balance. It depends on health care costs, housing, debt, inflation, job stability, Social Security, Medicare, and whether people know where to get trustworthy advice. EBRI found that more than 2 in 5 workers do not know where to go for good financial or retirement guidance, which may be one of the most practical warning signs in the entire survey.

For readers, the takeaway is personal but not hopeless. The retirement conversation is shifting from “Do I have a big enough number?” to “Can my plan survive real life?” That means accounting for medical premiums, emergency savings, debt payments, housing costs, and the possibility of leaving work earlier than expected. In 2026, Americans are not giving up on retirement. They are asking a sharper question: will the retirement they were told to prepare for still match the economy they are actually living in?

Disclaimer – This list is solely the author’s opinion based on research and publicly available information. It is not intended to be professional advice.  

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